What Me, Worry?
The Toronto Star ran a lengthy feature story on Saturday about Research in Motion and the launch of the iPod iPhone.
Perhaps the quote of the story is co-CEO Jim Balsillie claiming he doesn’t know if anyone within RIM had got hold of an iPod iPhone yet. “I haven’t seen one. It’s possible, I guess. I mean, you watch these things, but you really have to just focus and do your job.”
This statement is difficult, if not impossible, to believe given RIM’s strategic focus and Balsillie’s competitive streak. You have to believe somewhere in the bowels of RIM’s sprawling corporate campus in Waterloo, there’s a team of crackerjack engineers tearing apart the iPhone as we speak.
While it doesn’t appear RIM and Apple are competing with each other right now, there is no doubt they are on a collision course as RIM moves deeper into the consumer market, and Apples sets its sights on the corporate market.
And while the Pearl and Curve are big advances for RIM in the pro-sumer market, there’s no doubt RIM needs to feature a better MP3 player in future iterations of the Blackberry given it is increasingly becoming a standard feature within all wireless devices.
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9 opinions for What Me, Worry?
Oliver Dueck
Jul 9, 2007 at 8:19 am
iPod? I assume you mean iPhone?
Todd Sieling
Jul 9, 2007 at 9:13 am
This must mean iPhone. The iPod was launched in 2001 and has no overlap with RIM products.
That said, I think RIM has a lot to worry about.
JVRudnick
Jul 9, 2007 at 12:18 pm
you mean iPhone….and you should be SURE of what you’re referring too….! Jim seems to be!
AndrewK aka docGUI
Jul 9, 2007 at 8:09 pm
There are at least three major reasons the iPhone is NOT something RIM needs to worry about. At least until Apple improves and furthers the line. Doing that will be tough given their contracts.
1) Situational Use
It’s so simple to use but only when everything is just so. Yay more lag between messages than RIM’s product line. Cool I can switch orientations but again why the delay?
2) Marketing & Positioning
Yes line extension and name dilution run rampant at Apple. Yes they will get worse soon. That will bite into them later but I’m not even talking about that.
Yes Jobs has a reality distortion field but that only lasts so long especially when it comes to servicing one segment (tip of the iceberg syndrome) while failing in …
3) Addressing Demographic Shifts
Guess what Apple? Even FaceBook that bastion of the youth demographic realized that Women and the Elderly exist. Plug this into items one and two and what does the iPhone do in the years to come? Flop or limp.
There are more but the iPhone is so lacking in those core three that it’s not worth piling on the poor device or Apple.
And lets be clear not only does Apple have a history of failure in ALL these areas but worse still until the iPod they had very little success addressing any of them.
Remember this device will have to be the torch bearer for Apple till at least mid 2009. That’s a real Newton err Message Pad time line. Anyone remember how that one went?
RIM will be careful but will also stay focussed. They aren’t rushing any devices to beat their competitors to market like Apple did with the iPhone. (What you thought that OS X delay was just smoke and mirrors? LG thinks different. Just a tad iRonic don’t you agree?)
Get your popcorn and watch their pipeline and the lawsuits closely. Compare RIM’s pipeline to Apple’s one product.
Todd Sieling
Jul 10, 2007 at 11:56 am
AndrewK I have to disagree on some of those points.
I’ve been playing with a friend’s iPhone and seeing how he’s using it for the past 5 days and find it simple and snappy in the scenarios I’ve encountered so far: making calls, voicemail, getting directions, looking up stuff on the web from restaurants to news stories in discussion. What’s more, I got to visit the iPhone DevCamp in San Francisco and saw nearly 300 people hacking together web-based apps with ease, apps that do the usual tricks but also new ones like coordinating actions based on touch coordinates on two separate phones, all across the web. As far as situational use goes, I didn’t see one where the iPhone didn’t perform well.
Suggesting that marketing and positioning are off base is hard to respond to, as they seem to know their market well enough to sell a million+ devices in a little over a week, and nearly half of that in the first 3 days. I haven’t heard about a flood of returns, and most reviews seem pretty positive. What are they missing in marketing and positioning, especially when you consider the strong growth in Mac sales over the past year?
Finally, when did Facebook not address women? And for that matter, age has never been a barrier to being in Facebook, only whether or not you attended the schools that they originally serviced. It’s very true that they skewed younger by the nature of educational demographics, and still do even on opening the doors to everyone.
I think Apple will surprise you in the coming year or so, and I do think that RIM has something to worry about. As a 1.0 product the iPhone is exceptionally strong in design and performance, and it’s captured the imaginations of many developers who aren’t even allowed access to its core, only via web apps. The amount of screen real estate that the iPhone provides, especially when you throw viewing Word and Excel docs into the mix, along with being a capable music and video player and a lackluster camera.
What I’m not getting from your comments is, how does the brand extension in Apple count as a negative and the RIM pipline vs Apple’s one product as you put it count as a plus? I think I’m missing something there.
Last point: the iPhone is not the only product in Apple’s lineup. The content that the iPhone can work with seamlessly (as in ‘it just works’) with iPods, AppleTV and the Mac lineup. These products address both mobile and at-home activities and as such brings Apple into stronger play in all parts of a customer’s life.
One thing’s for sure, it will be fun to watch.
AndrewK aka docGUI
Jul 10, 2007 at 7:29 pm
Hello there Todd,
I now see independent data supporting my original points (based on telecoms analyst data and techs in the telecom field) regarding poor latencies and bandwidth.
PC World and BroadBand/DSLReports are both running pieces on this issue using actual production units, speed tests from actual buyers, in the real world all over the States. Take a look, the implications support my points.
But put latencies aside and compare stationary solid surface use to mobile use and I think you will find RIM wins atm in mobility where it matters. Try to use both devices in a cafe. No competition.
As for initial iPhone sales numbers…
Apple loyalists are a pent up demand. That demand is depreciated with each sale. Can they maintain sales momentum? Can they extend sales to the average Joe and Jane? You also briefly mention returns which were ridiculously high with the Motorola Rokr (the first iTunes phone) but those numbers will take time to accumulate.
I’d give it two-three months before we really can tell about the impact of returns. Apple learned a lesson and launched later. AT&T even saddled buyers with a two year contract and dataplan as well. With summer holidays returns should be depressed stateside. But there is a downside… back to school might kill the iPhone’s sales momentum. That’s a big risk with launching when they did.
Apple knows they have some problems once they get past the low hanging fruit phase. That the iPhone has now been cracked to bypass phone activation, makes some future percentage of sales numbers suspect for use as a phone. Some will just utilize the device as a wifi portable and media player. Apple still makes money mind you and with good iPhone price margins that’s a plus.
As an aside anyone remember when Apple products were perceived as so easy to use you didn’t even need the manuals? A more complicated product like the iPhone and now by necessity supporting MS Windows through Bootcamp is slowly adding complexity to Apple products. See their Apple Trainer initiative for proof that even Apple realizes it needs to make headway in of all things usability!
But back to marketing and demographics. How many ladies have you seen rushing out for an iPhone? How many do you think will buy one now that the initial rush has subsided?
How many business people will buy one (mainly men with disposable income) given that they can’t activate it on AT&T’s business or corporate plans? Doh!
The iPhone is for guys with beanies first despite a wonderfully warm ad campaign. Women are looking at the product and in general going “so what.” Contrast that with females using RIM’s products. Not only are there more of them (first mover advantage and all that) but RIM is playing to that market by being simple instead of encouraging things like mashups.
Some would even say iPhone DevCamp and similar initiatives were just to get geek buy in and promotion after the horrible artificial Rokr limits on even the number of songs the device could use.
Instead we have the limits you mentioned and inability to drill down. Kind of like the Rokr all over. When will they learn?
Now Apple is trying to be all things to all people. Look at the shotgun approach they have taken. Not only are products being released in a poor manner but worse focus is being lost. Apple TV is a product that should have both been done better content wise and done better sales wise. Your mention of computer sales elicits a chuckle given they took the Computer out of Apple Computer.
Think that telling name change it was at the same event as the iPhone announcement.
Face it, the iPod is still saving the company. As an iPod though the iPhone is deficient storage and battery wise. I’d love to be surprised, but Apple just hasn’t been doing it lately.
You also fail to address the points on history the Rokr and Message Pad/Newton. Those were both products that were to “address both mobile and at-home activities and as such brings Apple into stronger play in all parts of a customer’s life.”
On both those products, they struck out.
Other companies that focused not on being accessories to the brand but worthy devices all on their own proved that the concepts work. I still don’t see that with the iPhone. Still the gradual success of the iPod means that two out of three ain’t bad. Call those two product failures a learning experience.
But has Apple learned?
Naming the product iPhone was a poor choice. Seriously Apple Phone would have been better if only to help the new product get into the minds of the masses. Just think of the sentence. “Apple now sells cool easy to use phones.” Many (believe it or not) see iPod when they see iPhone.
That’s bad because like it or not three people aren’t around to correct them like they are on this blog.
Compare BlackBerry to iPhone. RIM got their monies worth naming wise especially when it comes to women considering buying devices and the plans that go with them.
As for Facebook while not a member I do hear quite a bit about what women think of it. For instance: Invites from friends made a bigger impact on many women who were otherwise deterred by the homepage. If you put up a wall and don’t let people really see the communities flourishing inside instead showing little more than your demo you are alienating potential user demographics.
This is not an overt action to discriminate just what happens as a result of an entities actions.
Many Web 2.0 companies could learn from much of what Facebook did and did not do.
Todd Sieling
Jul 11, 2007 at 12:37 am
Thanks for the extra response, Andrew.
A few quick responses, since I think we see things from really different angles.
> Try to use both devices in a cafe. No competition.
This makes no sense at all. I used the iPhone in a restaurant and it was fine. What do you see as the problem? Have you used the device at all?
> Apple loyalists are a pent up demand. That demand is depreciated with each sale. Can they maintain sales momentum?
Not from the first weekend, definitely. That was certainly pent up demand. But I think that most reviews have been positive and while I’m sure you have an excuse for that, I think people will keep buying them.
> The iPhone is for guys with beanies first despite a wonderfully warm ad campaign. Women are looking at the product and in general going “so what.” Contrast that with females using RIM’s products.
Absurd, and mildly insulting. Early adopters are early adopters. I’ve seen women with iPhones, as in the last 24hrs. I’ve seen women with Blackberries.
> the Rockr
I agree - total failure of a product, and Apple wasn’t the only company involved with its development. It was a bad relationship and a bad phone.
> Now Apple is trying to be all things to all people.
With a premium-priced product? Ummm.
> The Newton
Was 10 years ago. A lot can and has changed in that time. The Newton wasn’t a phone or a media player or an internet device. It was a notepad, weighed who knows how many times more than an iPhone and was at least 4x the volume, hardly a pocket item.
> A more complicated product like the iPhone and now by necessity supporting MS Windows through Bootcamp is slowly adding complexity to Apple products.
This doesn’t make much sense to me. Bootcamp is an alternate startup mode, and the iPod has been supported on Windows since third gen at least, without any fatal effects that I can see.
> Many (believe it or not) see iPod when they see iPhone.
I absolutely believe that, and so they can think legitimately. Many reviews call the iPhone the best iPod that Apple has made.
> Your mention of computer sales elicits a chuckle given they took the Computer out of Apple Computer.
I’d say touche, but it wouldn’t make sense. They still sold more computers this year than last year, and last year was better than the year before. They see the future of computers as more like mobile devices than beige workstations. How does that disprove or discount the effect of selling more Macs than ever?
> If you put up a wall and don’t let people really see the communities flourishing inside instead showing little more than your demo you are alienating potential user demographics.
Well, with 25+ million users, some 80% of which return to the site at least once a week, I’d say alienation is working out quite well for them. I think the key to Facebook is that it capitalizes on existing real world relationships and networks, and keeps out the strangers, making things feel more familiar and friendlier. That’s the FB lesson to me, and I agree many haven’t learned it. At the same time, not every site has the same motivation and broad functional focus that Facebook has, especially in light of F8 which I was at the launch for.
Back to the iPhone, I honestly think we just see this really differently, but after having used one and seen it in use, I see one of the best 1.0 products ever. It has issues, and I think the mail app sucks along with lots of other folks. The web on EDGE is slow, on wifi it’s dandy, and browsing a webpage by using your fingers to pull into larger format any portion you want to see is something that the blackberry can’t hold a candle to. I also think the keyboard needs work, and the camera could be doing a lot more work. I’d also like to see greater storage, but I’m pretty sure that’s not far off.
Use it for an hour, as I suspect you haven’t even held one yet, then tell me:
- it’s just for fanboys
- it won’t work for business (random access voicemail isn’t a jump forward for busy people? please)
- women won’t buy it
- it’s slow (off EDGE, which Apple doesn’t control)
Anyway thanks for the conversation.
AndrewK aka docGUI
Jul 11, 2007 at 4:20 pm
I have used an iPhone for 3 solid hours. Not very long I know but such was my access.
The email was very deficient vs RIM’s offerings. That includes time to send and receive. Typing was substandard especially when using punctuation which even my old Siemens does better! It might be me but I could not figure out how to copy and paste or get directly to the Inbox quickly. No manual so I had to wing it. Listening to music while browsing the web resulted in stuttering music and really slow page display and redraw. There was also one device incident involving a polite request for a reboot.
And while I will concede the device I used may have been a lemon, anecdotal reports support many of the things I noticed.
Perhaps it’s poor optimization or indicative of a lack of processing power? Only time and patches will tell. There are more issues but those are the big ones I alluded to or failed to mention previously.
You seem to be taking a step back from those launch week numbers you wrote about, recognizing they are not as meaningful as you first seemed to imply. As for after launch sales, lets also remember that if Apple includes it’s corporate gifts (an iPhone to all full time employees with them for a year+) as device sales, this demand will seem to be sustained through the slow summer months hence my bit about wait and see and watch return rates.
As for your argument on price excluding people from a device seemingly trying to do everything. They also excluded business demographics and your comment failed to address this fact. I will your omission to be silent consent that excluding a premium product from the business segment was a mistake.
When your product has a shelf life of three years, has the high potential for repairs and service under the warranty period (like all smartphones), and has a huge pent up demand of course you price in a premium. Still the polish on all the iPhone’s functionality is not what I or many others expect from a premium priced Apple product.
Bottom Line Re OP: RIM has to stay the course and keep improving. Not get distracted with the iPhone.
P.S. I was quite surprised that you felt even part of my reply was “mildly insulting.” Your time investment with the iPhone and related events obviously has had an impact with you. It was never my intent through the exposition of observations and opinions on the iPhone to insult you, mildly or otherwise.
Todd Sieling
Jul 11, 2007 at 4:33 pm
> As for your argument on price excluding people from a device seemingly trying to do everything. They also excluded business demographics and your comment failed to address this fact. I will your omission to be silent consent that excluding a premium product from the business segment was a mistake.
Hey there was lots to respond to! :)
Apple has never been very good at addressing the business user as the primary audience, and seems more into lifestyle electronics and software, which is fine. That said, we should be careful about what we mean by business user. I think of the suit who is on the road a lot and needs to keep interacting with the office(s) and clients.
For myself and many others I know, the Mac is a superb machine to get work done on, but I know there are issues working with exchange servers and the like. I agree that RIM should stay focussed, but I also think that things like visual voicemail (and not having to dial in for voicemail) and a better fit into work and play will draw some people away from them to the iPhone. I still think RIM is and should be worried, not that they’ll lose their hardcore audience but that the areas they were trying to grow into (with the Pearl, for example) are going to be much much harder to win and keep.
As for bugs, they happen, and that shouldn’t be a surprise, as they can be fixed. Unless there were hardware issues, patches come pretty quickly and I expect the Mail will be early on the hit list.
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